Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Cheap Marcus Morris Jersey . Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap Danny Ainge Jersey . Cleveland has won the first two of this set and has won six straight games since losing back-to-back tilts to open the year. Seattle, on the other hand, has now lost six in a row following consecutive wins to kick off its campaign. Cheap Boston Celtics Jerseys . -- Theres nothing like winning to bring hope for a struggling team. http://www.cheapcelticsjerseys.com/?tag=cheap-robert-parish-jersey . They know how difficult it is to beat the San Antonio Spurs. George scored 28 points and Indiana defeated San Antonio 111-100 on Saturday night, snapping an 11-game skid against the Spurs.NEW YORK -- When Zack Wheeler put the first two batters on in the second inning, he dialed it up with three strikeouts. When he saw how his pitch count was a bit high, he threw more to contact. Either way, everything is starting to work for the rising star. Wheeler struck out 10 in a gritty performance, Eric Campbell hit a three-run homer and the New York Mets beat the free-swinging Chicago Cubs 3-2 Friday night. "When he gets you in certain situations, those guys, they dont know whats coming," said manager Terry Collins, complimenting Wheelers assortment of pitches. "They just cant sit on one pitch." Wheeler (8-8) threw a career-high 120 pitches in 6 2-3 innings, allowing two runs and four hits. He walked four and hit a batter but overpowered the Cubs in winning his fifth consecutive decision. "The big thing is trying to keep my pitch count down and I really havent been able to do that," Wheeler said when talking about going deeper in games. The Cubs entered having struck out 77 times in their previous seven games, including 16 on Thursday in a loss to Milwaukee. Five of their first six outs Friday came by the K, and they fanned 14 times overall. Pitching with a hernia, Jenrry Mejia fanned one in a perfect ninth for his 18th save. "We have been facing some pretty good pitching. This guy today was pretty good, too," Cubs manager Rick Renteria said. "When you face arms like that, it happens. I thought we had a lot of really strong at-bats in terms of driving his pitch count up." Travis Wood (7-10) gave up three runs and four hits in 5 1-3 innings to drop to 0-5 in his last 11 starts. The Mets rebounded from a dreadful three-game sweep at the hands of the NL East-leading Washington Nationals to beat the Centrals last-place Cubs for just the first time in four meetings between the teams this season. Chicago swept three games at Wrigley Field in June. "We need to start playing better, theres no doubt about it," Campbell said. The Cubs took a 2-0 lead in the third -- the one inning Wheeler did not record a K -- behind Anthony Rizzos run-scoring groundout and Staarlin Castros RBI single. Cheap Terry Rozier Jersey. Campbell hit the second homer of his career an out after Wood walked David Wright and Lucas Duda. "Walks killed me," Wood said. TRAINERS ROOM Cubs: Luis Valbuena is being held out of the starting lineup Friday and Saturday. Renteria thinks the scuffling infielder needs a break. Valbuena also has a cold. He grounded out as a pinch-hitter to end the game to fall to 1 for 30. Mets: Right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (elbow inflammation) will make a rehabilitation start for Double-A Binghamton on Saturday. Collins says he is not sure where Matsuzaka will fit when he returns. UP NEXT Cubs: Right-hander Dan Straily, obtained in the trade that sent Jeff Samardzija to Oakland on July 5, will make his Cubs debut. Renteria said Straily is being called up from Triple-A Iowa to give the rest of the rotation an extra days rest. The team is in a stretch of having a game on 20 straight days. OF Junior Lake is being sent to Iowa. Mets: Jonathon Niese (6-8) is 2-4 with a 5.26 ERA against the Cubs. Castro is 5 for 16 (.313) with a homer and five RBIs against the left-hander WISHFUL THINKING Some Mets fans recently have called for their beleaguered team to make a deal with the shortstop-rich Cubs for Castro. If Castro, who is signed with Chicago through 2019, has his say, hell stay right where he is. "I know a lot of teams could have me and want me, but Im here and I dont want to leave here," Castro said. THAT DIDNT WORK When Juan Lagares hit a one-out fly to right field in the sixth, Campbell took off running. Collins said he was given a steal sign, but Campbell was at third base before he turned back. Ryan Sweeney made an easy throw into the infield for the double play. Rizzo, the first baseman, dropped the ball and catcher Wellington Castillo had to pick it up and step on the base for a rare 9-3-2 double play. ITS OFFICIAL The Mets gave OF Chris Young his unconditional release. Young, who is making $7.25 million this year, was designated for assignment last week after hitting .205 with eight homers and 28 RBIs in 254 at-bats. ' ' '